Five Reasons for saving the Ministry of Environment in Jordan

Jordan went through an exceptional week. On Nov 13^th the Prime Minister Abdullah Nsour, a veteran public bureaucrat and a former deputy has shocked Jordanians with a controversial decision to cut all subsidies on oil derivatives. This has resulted in a rapid and strong public outcry where thousands of protestors took to the streets of almost every Jordanian city and governorate venting their anger and demanding a reversal of the decision. Cutting oil subsidies is presumably one of the major conditions the IMF is imposing in Jordan to provide it with a life-line loan to save its budget deficit resulting from external factors (stopping natural gas imports from Egypt and the need to buy oil from international markets) and internal (overspending and corruption).

To show the Government’s seriousness in implementing austerity measures and to balance the painful economic decision that has been coupled to an existentialist political crisis, the PM decided also to lead a massive “restructuring of public institutions” that resulted in a very surprising decision to dissolve the 10 years old Ministry of Environment and delegate its authority and function the Ministry of Municipalities.

The decision that has been presented in the form of a proposed law to be discussed by the next Parliament due to be elected on January 23^rd, has shocked the environmental community in Jordan and cast a huge cloud of desperation on the staff of the Ministry. During the past few days there have been some movement by environmental activists including former Minister of Environment Khalid Irani and a coalition of national NGOs to convince the government to reverse its decision. This article is a modest contribution to this justified effort and explains why dissolving the Ministry of Environment is a bad decision:

1-      Against the course of history: this decision brings the clock 18 years back, when Environment was managed by a small, disappointed and marginalized department at the Ministry of Municipalities. After the Rio Earth Summit in 1992 the whole international environmental governance system was improved and all countries started to enhance their institutional set up. Jordan decided to create a special entity called the “General Corporation of Environmental protection GCEP” which was reporting again to the Minister of Municipalities.  In almost most cases environmental was marginalized and the political power of the GCEP was eroded. In the early years of 21^st century the idea of evolving into a Ministry of Environment appeared and gained momentum until the Ministry was created in 2003. Since then almost all Arab countries and maybe the majority of the world created independent ministries for environment. The last 10 years witnessed a slow but steady build up of the legal and institutional framework for environmental protection in the country and it would be such a shame to let all this effort vanish in thin air.

2-      A negative political message: By dissolving the Ministry of Environment Jordan sends a very negative message to its own people and to the international community. Lack of political commitment in environmental protection means opening up the nation to all kinds of environmental violations and pollution, neglect of environmental laws and principles and threatening the quality of life of the current and future generations. In addition, this will put Jordan in an awkward position in its international environmental governance network and risks failing to attract any global partnerships and resources to achieve sustainability.

3-      Loss and not a gain for national economy: The current budget of the Ministry of Environment is 3.4 Million JDs from the treasury in running and capital costs. It is currently implementing projects worth around 200.0 Million USD including the massive environmental claims programmes (integrated ecosystem restoration of the badia worth 160.0 Million JDs). By dissolving the Ministry Jordan will only save the salary of a Minister but will most probably lose millions of USD of international aid that contribute to sustainable development and improving human resources and technical infrastructure of environmental management in the country.  Almost all donors in Jordan are working directly with the Ministry in implementing environmental projects and programmes linked to national priorities and international obligations and they will all be drastically impacted if the Ministry of downgraded with almost no sustainability of existing projects and low probability of securing new projects.

4-      Breakdown in institutional and legal frameworks: The current Environmental protection law and the various bylaws that have resulted from it are forming a strong and organized legal framework that requires further improvement and not deep weakening. The legal basis for many environmental activities (Environmental impact assessments, environmental licensing, establishment of protected areas, management of wastes, monitoring of air and water quality, policies for sustainable development, regulation of investments, etc…) are all embedded within the current environmental law and will all be lost or subjected to legal gaps once the Ministry is dissolved.

5-      Not adapting to threats and opportunities of future: the ever-increasing complexity of national, local and international environmental pressures need a stronger Ministry with a wider mandate and enhanced legal, institutional and technical resources. The potential impacts of Climate Change and other related pressures require the presence of a strong Ministry with a mandate to respond to Climate Change risks and benefit from opportunities opened up by the international climate management regime. Jordan will certainly lose its current competitive advantage in resource mobilization once the Ministry if lost and will get exposed to the risks while unable to benefit from resources.

The Jordanian environmental community needs the help of all its supporters and friends, including international organizations and donors to save the Ministry and continue with the path of partnership that has been effective throughout the past decade. If any certain agency (i.e Ministry of Environment) is in need to enhance its performance it should be supported and not face the death penalty justified by an austerity measure that will not save any money to the treasury and will result in the loss of international aid and a severe deterioration and erosion of its natural resources.

Connecting Climate Change to Poverty reduction in Jordan

Climate change is expected to have a detrimental impact upon human development and poverty in Jordan. This will occur by increasing the severity of resource scarcity, which in turn makes access to natural resources more difficult. The poor are expected to be the most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change as they possess the least assets and resources to adapt to its impacts. Increasing the ability of the poor and local communities to adapt to climate change, in the coming years, is extremely important. To date the Government of Jordan has little policy or programming in place to do this.

Jordan feeling the heat:

A comprehensive analysis of available climate data (1961 – 2005) published in the Second National Communication on Climate Change in Jordan (2009) has revealed clear trends in temperature and rainfall. Both maximum and minimum temperatures in selected meteorological stations have shown significant increasing trends between 0.3°C – 2.8°C. This is parallel to an observed 5 – 20% decrease in precipitation in the majority of meteorological stations across the country. Only 2 out of the 19 stations show an increase of 5 – 10% in precipitation.

Climate change projections for Jordan show an increase in temperature of less than 2°C, by the year 2050. Warming was found to be stronger during the warm months of the year while less warming is projected to occur in the cold months of the year.

Results of the vulnerability assessment contained in the Second National Communication report anticipate detrimental impacts especially on water and agriculture. On water resources, the impact of climate change is expected to be significant as a result of reductions in precipitation and projected changes in its spatial and temporal distribution. The analysis of the incremental scenarios had shown that changes in precipitation and temperature would highly affect the amounts of monthly surface run-off in the Yarmouk and Zarqa River Basins. It was found that the most vulnerable scenarios to climate change impacts on water resources are those when temperature will be increased by more than 2°C and precipitation will not be increased. Even in some scenarios, the increase in precipitation by 20% does not compensate for the 2°C increase in temperature.

For the agriculture sector the results showed that climate change could have significant impacts in particular on rainfed agriculture. The livestock sector and overall food production in the country were identified as most significantly impacted through climate change impacts on rainfed cultivation and on arid and semi-arid rangelands.  The report also identifies some expected impacts on health conditions, including physiological disorders, skin rashes and dehydration, eye cataracts and damage of public health infrastructure, and deaths and injuries.

Can the poor adapt?

Development and climate literature identifies major impacts of climate change on livelihoods and poverty through the examination of current documented cases throughout the world. Climate change is expected to reduce the capacity of poor to cope with social and environmental pressures and degrade developmental gains especially related to the achievement of the MDGs. The impacts are also expected to be gender-based with roles of men and women impacted in a way related to climate change. Women will be obliged to exert more effort in securing and managing scarce natural resources while men will be pressured to seek additional/alternative income sources that may see them migrating from rural to urban areas.

The main areas of poor households’ vulnerability to climate change include:

1. Dependence on natural  resources that are vulnerable to climate change;
2. A lack of assets which  hinders effective adaptation;
3. Settlements in high-risk  areas (i.e. drought prone); and
4. Low levels of education  and professional skills that prevent members of poor households for  shifting to climate-resilient sources of income.

There is a considerable gap in our collective understanding of the details of social vulnerability to climate change in Jordan. A comprehensive impact assessment study should be conducted to identify the major direct and indirect climate change impacts on poverty and socio-economic factors in Jordan, with special focus on geographical areas most prone to climate change impacts. An informed judgment can de derived at this stage, based on national climate assessment studies and international case studies that the following social groups can be most affected by climate change. These include:

• Farmers depending on rainfed agriculture;
• Farmers depending on small scale irrigated agriculture;
• Families dependent on livestock management;
• Populations more prone to heat waves; and
• Population suffering from the lack of proper access to safe and affordable drinking water.

The Royal Society for the Conservation of Nature (RSCN) has recently started to assess the adaptive capacities of local communities around protected areas regarding the impacts of climate change. For the first time in Jordan the RSCN has developed an Adaptive Capacity Index produced from results of both a literature review and semi structured interviews. The Adaptive Capacity Index was generated based on several factors formulated from specific indicators and determinants including human, social, physical, environmental and economic indicators. The RSCN recommends some adaptation interventions including: (i) supporting water harvesting practices; (ii) water collecting wells; (iii) infrastructure restoration; (iv) best agricultural practices; (v) encouraging changing current crops to more feasible drought tolerant crops; (vi) encouraging the use of gray water for irrigation; (vii) enhancing market access of local agricultural and traditional products; (viii) raising awareness regarding climate change; and (ix) providing assistance and guidance to local communities in addition to improving governance systems while considering gender.

This is a rich, urgent and yet unexplored field for sustainable development in Jordan. Climate change is not only a global phenomenon with theoretical dramatic consequences, but a present danger to the future of sustainability in Jordan and other semi-arid countries. The cost of inaction is much higher than any visionary action to be taken very soon.

Water is the defining factor for development and peace in the Middle East

Water is an issue of life and death in Arab countries and is THE most limiting factor for sustainable development in this area. The Arab region is among the most water-scarce in the world. Due to increase in population growth and bad management, the average annual per capita share is declining from below 1000 cubic meters now, already below the level of water scarcity, to below 500 cubic meters as early as 2015, defined as severe water stress. World average is 6500 cubic meters. Major water sources are from outside Arab borders or shared, and most available water resources are already developed

Not only does the Arab world suffer from physical scarcity of water resources it is plagued with bad management, wasteful practices and fragmentation of efforts. To be fair and honest, this region has witnessed some of the most interesting trials for sustainable water management using non-conventional water resources, engaging in public-private partnerships for water resources and utility management and mobilizing communities through awareness, education and media campaigns. The cumulated efforts of local professionals and communities, in addition to the evolution of policies, legislation and practical guidelines on sustainable and integrated water resource management have all contributed to a paradigm shift in water policy and planning.

Yet there is something essential missing. The preferred options for water management in the region still depend on engineering solutions and megaprojects that will move water from source to consumption points through pipes and networks. This approach will eventually dry all water resources to the last drop. What this region needs is more involvement of natural resource management scientists and communities that focus on the protection and sustainable use of water resources rather than piping them with state-of-the-art technologies. Some of the best answers can be found in the form of ancient aqueducts developed by the native populations to adapt to arid conditions by sustainable use of natural resources including rainwater collection. Solutions can be found with more emphasis on community actions and ecological wisdom than engineering approaches.

Water is THE defining factor for peace and development in the Middle East. It lies at the heart of the complex political conflict in Palestine/Israel and is one of the most difficult issues to be tackled in the final status negotiations, if they ever launch. Bilateral relations between some neighboring Arab countries suffer from frequent deterioration due to the inability to reach binding and fair agreements for allocation and use of shared water resources.

I do not intend to mentions statistics and specific cases about the water situation in the region. The Internet is endowed with resources and research about water calamities in the Middle East and also with proven and potential solutions.

The main message from the post is that Arab countries need to adopt a more integrated approach to water management that will take into consideration the element of sustainability through introducing new and sometimes painful policy measures to guarantee adequate use of available water resources and to launch an honest battle against the corruption and misguided practices in the water sector that result in wasting precious resources. This transition can be derived by the adoption of a human rights approach to water management than engineering solutions. Such an approach will focus on the optimization of water allocation among the three main sectors of agriculture, domestic and industrial while taking care of the sustainability of water ecosystem and watersheds that should continue to provide water resources for future generations.

No protected areas please, we are in the “Arab Spring”!

One of the most bizarre consequences of the impact of the “Arab Spring” in Jordan is the new threat to the concept and sustainability of protected areas and natural reserves. After the wave of public protests sweeping the region asking for better governance and enhancing public services the government of Jordan started to feel the pressure and the political-social balance in the country is about to change with more empowerment and mobilization of the people and erosion of some state authority.

Jordan has a unique biodiversity despite its relatively small size and is home to 7 jewels in the form of natural reserves that attract local and foreign sustainable tourism activities, and harbor local socio-economic development initiatives that provide income and alternative livelihoods to local communities. For more details about Jordan’s protected areas and biodiversity go to www.rscn.org.jo

Yarmouk Protected Area in the north of Jordan 

Although the expanded public space of freedom of gathering and expression has resulted in the mobilization of some genuine and effective environmental movements against the proposed nuclear programme and the destruction of Bergish forest to build a military complex, some other protests were detrimental to the environmental agenda. The public protests raised one of the most controversial and sensitive issues in Jordan which is the “historic claims to land” by local tribes that used to “manage” such lands and have historic rights prior to the establishment of the State. Many tribes and local communities requested the return of their “claimed historic rights” to lands they used to manage including some areas designated as potential Protected Areas.

This case was very obvious in Jabal Masouda (Petra) where members of local communities showed their open resistance to the establishment of the Jabal Masouda protected area by the Royal Society for the Conservation of Nature (RSCN), which is the NGO officially mandated to establish and manage protected areas. The local administration, represented by the Petra Regional Authority provided support to the claims in an attempt to keep the area within the proposed economic development plans but not as a Protected Area.  The RSCN had to find an alternative area that represents the targeted ecosystem/habitat in Jabal Masouda and found their aim in the Shobak area which is still under negotiation with the government. The same case emerged here with some local communities asking for land rights, while another main player, the National Resources Authority requesting the designation of large percentage of the area for mining purposes. Until now the designation file of Shobak is still frozen by the government with no apparent breakthrough in the deadlock.

In the Yarmouk Protected Area some local tribal figures leaders and parliamentarians asked the government to abolish its decision to establish the Protected Area, again on the basis of the historic rights to lands and to continue grazing and unplanned use of natural resources and ecosystem services. In this case RSCN took an uncompromising position to refuse any changes to the legal status and boundaries of the PA, fearing that such precedence may open up the door for more claims in other PAs.

This change in the context of political economy and power will certainly pose real challenges for RSCN and the environmental community in general to respond in an early, effective and participatory manner to the request to change the status of PAs. For any new PA as well a detailed socio-political assessment should be conducted to identify potential sources of risks and mitigate them before any area is about to be declared as protected.

One of the options that can be pursued is to conduct a detailed analysis of land tenure in any area that is considered suitable and important to have a protected area. With the current controversy over historic rights to lands by the local communities,it is vital to avoid any areas where local communities have a belief of historic rights and if such a case appears should go the extra mile in gaining the trust of local communities before engaging in the establishment of PAs. The development of sustainable socio-economic and conservation projects could be an entry point to strengthening relationships with local communities.

The RSCN and the protected areas themselves are unfortunately paying the price for the lack of trust that the local communities are showing towards the public institutions and policies. It is important that such marvelous achievements in the Jordanian environmental sector be protected from the impacts of the Arab Spring and the legacy of bad public policies.

Urbanization and Environmental Change in Jordan

Jordanian cities were historically built on, or adjacent to water resources, especially groundwater. While cities expanded, the natural recharge area available for rain to infiltrate the soil and recharge the groundwater dramatically decreased.

The city of Amman is a clear example of rapid and exponential growth that defies sustainability criteria. The area of Amman was 52 Km2 in 1952, increased to 92 Km2 by 1985 and to 576 Km2 in 1987 and in 2007 made a huge growth to reach 1680 Km2. The area of Amman is currently bigger than Berlin (892 Km2), Moscow (1081 Km2) and Los Angeles (1290 Km2). However the population density in Amman is 1300 persons/km 2 compared to 3847 in Berlin, 9736 in Moscow and 2972 in Los Angeles. This huge area with sparse populations puts a lot of demand for infrastructure services and networks which means higher costs of more disturbances to natural conditions and systems. The Amman master plan of 2008 assumes that the population growth will reach 6.5 million in 2025 which can only happen based on a population increase rate of 6.6% annually while the current population growth rate is 2.2%. The masterplan however, focus on intensification of urbanization in specific area trying to contain unsustainable urban sprawl.

Outside Amman the urban expansion plans are even more deteriorating for sustainability. The rapid expansion of municipalities is driven by social pressures to increase the values of land by adding them to the planning zones. This results in the spread of sparse population that requires water, wastewater, energy, transportation, education and health services and resulting degradation of natural resources and high costs of delivering services. Most of there communities are served with cesspools that cause groundwater pollution since they are not connected to the wastewater network.

Rural to urban migration has become a core fact of life in Jordan.  The number of citizens living in urban areas almost doubled from 40% to 72% between 1952 and 2004. This is due to rural-to-urban migration and the fact that immigrants usually prefer to immigrate to cities rather than rural areas. Combined, the three largest cities (Amman, Zarqa and Irbid) make up 71.4% of the Jordanian population as of 2009. However, rising rural-to-urban migration leads to increasing pressure on housing, basic amenities, increase
demand for food (leading to inflation) and rising inequalities in living standards, both within the country, and within urban centers themselves.

Urbanization in Jordan is rapidly outstretching the nature’s carrying capacity in urban center, and it will be of no surprise to wittness gradual conflicts, competetion for resources and all other symptoms of ailing cities such unsustainable policies and practices continue.

COP 18, Climate Change and Al Jazeera

The selection of Qatar as a host for the UNFCCC COP 18 was met with a lot of controversy and surprise. Not only that the major climate change conference will be held for the first time in the Middle East, but in a country that is the top of the world in terms of carbon emissions per capita.

The massive meeting that will be held between 26 November- 7 December this year will be the first in the Post-Durban climate negotiation era where developing countries will have to rise up to their responsibilities in the global climate policy process. This event will need not only state-of-the-art logistical and infrastructure support from the host country but also visionary diplomacy and technical capacity that matches at least what Mexico showed in UNFCCC’s COP 16 in Cancun 2010.

This event will be a major opportunity for Arab countries, and especially the GCC to showcase their commitment to climate action by highlighting major investments and programmes in climate change mitigation and adaptation from the region. We just hope that such examples will not brag about how much money was allocated but what processes and ideas were deployed.

Qatar is emerging as one of the major influencing countries in the region, and it can utilize the main driving force that it has to support the climate cause. By this I mean Al Jazeera satellite channel. Al Jazeera is the most influential media outlet in the region and one of the most important at the global level. Al Jazeera not only brings news but it can change positions, ideas and perspectives. If Al Jazeera can invest time and resources in highlighting the climate concerns while approaching Doha 18 it can provide the most important breakthrough in climate change education and awareness in the region.

Al Jazeera’s English Channel  is one of the most professional and exciting media sources and it has a wide audience all over the world. It can be a perfect vehicle for disseminating knowledge about climate change and sustainability issues from the region to the world at large. The Channel’s active list of correspondences in developing countries may also help in highlighting vulnerabilities and impacts of climate change in the developing world and provide a platform for key political messages prior to the COP meeting itself.

On the other hand, Al Jazeera’s Arabic channel is a sensationalist but still a powerful tool for changing/modifying Arab public opinion and if it provides a series of programmes and debates on climate change it will be able to increase the awareness of the general public in a way that no other advocacy and communication programme can achieve. 

Qatar can provide much for the cause of climate change. Not only through remarkable resources in organizing conferences but also in spreading awareness and knowledge about climate change. In the meantime it would never hurt if Qatar can show evidence of a real willingness to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions.

Arab Climate Policies and the “M” word!

It is obvious now that the world of climate change policies will not be the same as we knew it for the past 20 years. Durban’s COP 17 has ended the differentiation between developed (Annex 1) and developing countries (Non Annex 1) in terms of climate obligations. It is only a matter of time, and arm twisting in negotiations until developing countries (including Arab countries from Saudi Arabia to Mauritania) will have to develop sound climate policies.

While Arab countries have been hiding for ages under the slogan of ‘common but differentiated responsibilities” for shying away from any climate change obligations, they have to wake up to face a new world. A world that will contain the dirty word that no one wants to say or hear, the famous ‘M” word that stands for Mitigation.

The last two COPs under the UNFCCC have strengthened the need to develop what is so politically called ‘Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions” (NAMAs) which will have to include specific plans for mitigating Greenhouse Gas emissions from developing countries, subject to their own socio-economic conditions and the availability of funding and technology transfer from developed countries and the developing countries’ own resources.

Arab climate policy makers will have to enter a new territory where mitigation and not only adaptation must be mainstreamed in the national planning context and be officially communicated to UNFCC. This is NOT a disaster, nor an outcome of a global conspiracy from developed countries against our emerging economies. It is a step that has to be taken and we should better think of it very soon. This is how I think a national mitigation policy can be developed safely and without impacting Arab countries’ quest for development.

For any Arab country that is still pursuing socio-economic development and growth, any climate change mitigation plan should be opportunity-based and focus on low-cost mitigation option (low-hanging fruits). Such a plan should be able to support a transition to a sustainable low-carbon economy without jeopardizing development gains.

The major process for developing a realistic mitigation plan for an Arab country could include the following steps:

1-    Continuous monitoring and analyses of political, policy, economic, social and technological trends in the major mitigation sectors (energy/transport, wastes, agriculture, industries, land use, etc…) to identify challenges and opportunities for GHG mitigation.

2-    Analysis of the legal framework of the mitigation sectors and how appropriate it is for mitigation measures and recommending modifications.

3-    Conducting the GHG emissions inventory that identifies major emission sectors and the contribution of each sector to the overall national GHG emissions and trends with the latest available figures.

4-    Conducting a mitigation analysis by determining a baseline scenario and a mitigation scenario with all associated political, technological, economic and social factors integrated.

5-    Development of the comprehensive mitigation plan focusing on opportunities (energy efficiency, renewable energy, waste-to-energy systems, green buildings, technology transfer, sustainable agriculture, etc…) and determining the reduction unit cost for each sector.

6-    Identification of mitigation opportunities associated with the global Climate Change governance system that could enhance access to financial and technological resources to enhance mitigation. This will include a major focus on CDM and other UNFCCC-related instruments.

7-    Publishing the suggested mitigation programme as a policy document that targets decision makers, investors, donors and the civil society. This policy document should identify and highlight available opportunities for mitigation and propose public support mechanisms in the form of economic incentives, subsidies, legislative reforms, institutional empowerment and technological support.

8-    Establishing a national representative platform to discuss the mitigation programme and turning it into a detailed national plan.

9-     Preparation of the national mitigation plan 2013-2020 with key performance indicators, logical framework analysis, financial allocations and targets, institutional responsibilities and monitoring & evaluation plan. The plan should be divided into short term and long term objectives as well as sub-national components (cities, governorates). The plan should also include detailed pilot projects and options for investing in research and development aspects for the emergence of local innovations for mitigation technologies.

10-                       Publishing and endorsing the national mitigation plan at the Cabinet level and providing it with the necessary political support.

11-                       Exploration of new and emerging opportunities for mitigation in the post-Kyoto global governance framework including REDD+.

12-                       Exploring the possibility of establishing a GHG database where GHG emissions are voluntarily reported and documented to identify trends, threats and opportunities for rapid mitigation action.

13-                       Processing the mitigation plan into education, learning and awareness products directed at the community to mobilize support and understanding.

14-                       Proposition of an independent monitoring and evaluation system for the mitigation plan. Both government and civil society will be empowered to report back on the progress of the plan using measurable and realistic indicators on annual basis and compiling results in official (governmental) and non-official monitoring reports that include lessons learned and opportunities for improvement. 

I don’t think this is impossible to achieve, do you?